Carlsbad, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

792
FXUS64 KMAF 191102
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
602 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 602 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

- Temperatures continue to warm up today and Sunday as upper-
  level ridging builds.

- Low (10-30%) rain chances return west of the Pecos River Sunday
  afternoon. Best chances lie in and near the Davis Mountains.

- Near normal temperatures and low to medium (10-60%) rain
  chances are on the horizon next week. Rain chances look to
  remain mostly west of the Pecos River each afternoon, with best
  chances over and near the Davis Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge centered over the Gulf
Coast states, the western influence of which extends all the way to
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  A weakness is apparent invof
the upper Texas Coast/ArklaTex, but this doesn`t look to affect
matters here very much.

Instead, thicknesses continue increasing today, adding a degree or
so to yesterday`s highs.  Tonight, a LLJ in excess of 35 kts is
forecast to develop.  This will combine with mid/high clouds to
retard radiational cooling, adding a couple of degrees to overnight
temperatures and yielding lows ~ 5-7 F above normal.  Sunday looks
to be perhaps the warmest day this forecast as highs will top out
some 3-5 F above climatology.

Convective chances remain minimal, and confined to the mountains
west of the Pecos each day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

A slight cool down and increased rain chances are in store in the
long term period. An upper-level ridge resting over the southern
CONUS will drift east a touch, allowing highs to taper down a few
degrees compared to the weekend. Some models show an upper-level may
roll over Texas along the periphery of the ridge Sunday night into
the middle of the week before heading northeast. At the surface, an
area of high pressure will meander over the Gulf through much of
next week, while lee troughing sets up over the central Great
Plains. These features shall bring ample moisture to our area.
Upslope flow and additional lift from the upper low results in an
uptick in rain chances Monday through Thursday, primarily during the
afternoon and evening hours. Rain chances range from 10-60% each
afternoon from the central Permian Basin into the Lower Trans
Pecos and areas west. Rain chances will be best over the higher
terrain, especially in and near the Davis Mountains. By Friday,
PoPs are expected to drop off. In terms of temperatures, morning
lows are forecast to dip into the 70s for most. Highs top out
within the 90s each afternoon, with the exception of the mountains
and adjacent plains, where highs will reach the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               97  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 98  72  99  74 /  10  10   0  10
Dryden                   97  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            98  74  99  75 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           90  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                    96  70  98  72 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    90  66  91  66 /  10   0  30  20
Midland Intl Airport     97  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     98  74  99  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99