Carlsbad, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

301
FXUS64 KMAF 042340
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
640 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through next
  weekend, including warm overnight minimums. Heat Advisories may
  be needed later next week.

- Rain chances will be minimal each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Happy Independence Day!  WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper
ridge now centered directly over Southeast New Mexico, Resulting in
a warm, mostly-dry 4th of July for West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico.  Latest CAMs and temperature trends suggest highs will top
out 5-7 F above normal, a few degrees above yesterday.  Convective
chances, like yesterday, will be paltry and confined to orographic
influences, if that.  Subsidence may render less activity than
yesterday.

Tonight, as has been and will be the case through the extended,
overnight minimums will remain unseasonably warm as a LLJ
redevelops, keeping the boundary layer well-mixed.  In addition, a
veil of high cloud is on tap to increase over the region, further
retarding radiational cooling.

Sunday, the ridge is forecast to continue developing west, and
weakening slightly over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  This
will result in temperatures similar to today, give or take a degree
or two in places. An outflow from an MCS in the Central Plains
tonight may move into the Southern Plains Sunday, bringing minimal
chances of convection to our northern zones.

Sunday night, overnight lows will be similar to tonight`s, if not a
degree or so cooler due to a weaker LLJ and slightly less cloud
cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The extended forecast remains fairly pedestrian, as the upper ridge
will dictate conditions to one extent or another.  Monday, the LREF
and global models center the ridge over the junction of Arizona.New
Mexico/Mexico.  From there through the end of the work week, the
ridge is forecast to build west, ending up just offshore SoCal/Baja,
before rounding out the extended Saturday afternoon over the Four
Corners.  This will maintain unseasonably warm temperatures for West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, with Thursday looking to be the
warmest day this forecast as highs plateau some 5-10 F above
climatology.  Heat products may be warranted later next week,
especially when warm overnight minimums are taken into consideration.

Unfortunately, under this synoptic scenario, and in the extended,
there exists low (but non-zero) chances of convection each day, but
triggers are subtle and not resolved by coarser, long-trange models.
For most locations, unfortunately, this means warm/dry conditions
for the next 7-10 days, at least.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions prevail at most sites, despite a few locations
dealing with scattered cumulus clouds with bases at about 7,000
ft this evening. Ceilings should increase overnight as convection
tapers down. Winds shall generally be out of the southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               77 101  74  98 /   0   0  20  20
Carlsbad                 74 100  72  99 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                   77 102  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            75 100  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           71  92  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                    72  98  69  96 /  10   0  20  10
Marfa                    64  93  63  91 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     77  99  74  97 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   77  99  74  97 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     76 101  74  99 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...95