Carlsbad, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

739
FXUS64 KMAF 251123
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
523 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 506 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

- Patchy dense fog is likely (60-80%) for areas along and east of the
  Pecos River in west Texas this morning. There is low to medium
  (30-50%) confidence of patchy dense fog occurring in the Permian
  Basin and far southeast New Mexico. Drive with caution if you
  encounter fog!

- Record warm temperatures through late week and early weekend.

- A pronounced change to cooler and cloudier weather beginning Sunday,
  with lowest temperatures and highest precipitation chances
  expected in the late Sunday night through late Monday night time
  frame.

- Precipitation type, coverage, and accumulation still uncertain.
  Monitor forecasts for any changes in the coming days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 106 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Current satellite imagery and observations show a plume of low-
level moisture over portions of west Texas and far southeast New
Mexico. This plume of moisture may set up another foggy morning
across the Permian Basin, far southeast New Mexico, and Stockton
Plateau. Fog is expected to be less widespread and dense compared
to what was seen yesterday morning due to stronger
southerly/southwesterly winds. The greatest potential of patchy
dense fog will be for areas along and east of the Pecos River in
west Texas late tonight into Christmas morning. The HREF has
medium to high (60-80%) probabilities of dense fog (visibilities
below 0.5 mile) over Winkler, Ward, Crane, and western Ector
counties beginning at 3 AM CST. Lower (30-50%) probabilities of
dense fog also exists over the Permian Basin and far southeast New
Mexico. Drive with caution if encountering fog this morning!

By 10-11 AM CST, any fog that developed early in the morning will
lift, clearing the way for potentially the warmest Christmas
Midland/Odessa has seen. Upper-level ridging and surface
southwesterly winds paves the way for very warm conditions across
the region. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s
for most locations. If the forecast high of 81 degrees holds, this
will be Midland`s warmest Christmas on record. The current record
holder is 78 degrees, set in 2021. Christmas night, warm
overnight lows persist in the mid 40s to mid 50s thanks to remnant
low-level moisture from the Gulf. Guidance has the highest (>
90%) relative humidities over the far eastern portions of the
forecast area. Once again, patchy fog may occur over these areas
late Christmas night into Friday morning.

Friday, southwesterly flow aloft keeps very warm conditions over
the region. As such, similar high temperatures in the upper 70s to
mid 80s are expected. Warm conditions continue into the early
part of the weekend before much cooler weather returns by early
next week. See the long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 106 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Warm to end the week, then a shift to cooler and cloudier weather
before temperatures moderate. That is the most certain part of
the forecast. The more uncertain part remains the type, coverage,
and accumulation of any precipitation. Friday night through
Saturday night stays within the predictable range that has been
established in the mid to upper ridging regime that has prevailed
over the Southern Great Plains into the Southeast US. This has
meant forecast lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s F range and highs in
the mid 70s to mid 80s F, upper 60s to mid 70s F higher
elevations, and mid 80s to lower 90s F for the Big Bend, along
with south/southwest downsloping winds west of lee troughing over
western higher terrain and southerly winds east of the lee
troughing. It has also meant persistence of dry air characterized
by dew point temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s F, upper 40s to
mid 50s F dew point temperatures central and eastern Permian Basin
into Terrell County. With NAEFS depicting temperatures 2 to 3
standard deviations above normal in the lower to mid troposphere
and remaining above 2 to 3 standard deviations for forecast height
of the atmospheric column, it is not out of question some
additional warm high and low records could be broken.

However, the real eventful news is still the pattern change
expected Sunday. Models remain consistent in showing a cold front
passage during the later part of the afternoon into the evening on
Sunday. Highs since runs from 24 hours prior to today are warmer
for Sunday suggesting an even later cold front passage, showing
widespread lower to mid 70s F over much of the Permian Basin into
Upper Trans Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and and northern Rio Grande
basins, with highs struggling to rise above 70F limited to Marfa
Plateau, Culberson County, SE NM plains in northwest Permian
Basin, and highs struggling to rise above 60F now confined to the
highest elevations of the Guadalupes and Davis Mountains. Highs
still rise into the 80s F for Rio Grande basins into Terrell
County. Winds shift from south/southwest to north then northeast
by Sunday evening as cloud cover increases and dew point
temperatures decrease into the teens to 20s F range by Monday
morning. This pronounced decrease in boundary layer moisture
coupled with CAA means lows Sunday night falling near to below
freezing north of Rio Grande basins and northwest of Lower Trans
Pecos, below freezing Marfa Plateau and westernmost into
northernmost SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin, 30s F
eastern Stockton Plateau, and mid 30s to mid 40s F southern Rio
Grande basins into Terrell County.

Increased lift and overrunning of air behind the cold front
allows not just increased clouds but an increase in precipitation
chances into the low to moderate (20% to 35%) range for central
portions of the forecast area from Culberson County into southern
Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau later Sunday night into Monday
afternoon. This coincides with the time of day Monday when
temperatures will still be in the 30s F, 40s F Rio Grande basins.
Therefore, there are snow showers and light wintry mix indicated
alongside predictions of rain or rain/snow showers, becoming
mostly snow showers or wintry mix by Monday evening. This will
have to be watched if forecasts continue to trend wetter, even as
precipitation type, timing, and accumulations remain uncertain.
All deterministic and ensemble models are now showing
precipitation accumulations for at least some portion of the
forecast area as well, with NBM showing highest amounts a few
hundredths of an inch and 0.5" to 1.0" snow over higher elevations
southwest of Pecos River and north of central Presidio and
Brewster Counties. The signal (also present yesterday in ensemble
guidance) is there for this region to see the highest
precipitation accumulations and highest probability of freezing
precipitation, but this could still change. This change is
courtesy of models now showing less of a split flow pattern and
more of a progressive phase in of the weather system over the
Great Basin and the northern Rockies, allowing for more efficient
moisture advection from the Pacific in the more quasi-zonal flow.
Highs still are on track to struggle above 50F for much of the
area Monday, and to fall into the 20s F, upper 20s F to lower 30s
F central Presidio and Brewster Counties into Terrell County
(regions that have not experienced their first freeze this year
and where freeze watches/warnings are looking more likely), and
mid 30s F southern Rio Grande basins. Monday night could end up
our coldest night so far this winter. As is usually the case when
this occurs, this means a slow moderation as ridging builds back
from Desert SW, with highs struggling to reach 60F Tuesday and
struggling to reach 70F Wednesday, with lows remaining near to
below freezing north of Rio Grande basins Tuesday night and
settling back into the 30s to 40s F range Wednesday night. Due to
the more progressive pattern, most of the precipitation looks to
be done by Tuesday evening. Therefore there are now several time
frames coinciding with below freezing temperatures and
precipitation chances: Sunday evening to Monday afternoon, and
Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. Plan firstly for cold
temperatures, but also keep a close eye on the precipitation
forecast in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Fog has developed over the Permian Basin and far southeast New
Mexico again this morning bringing IFR to LIFR CIGs and VIS to
MAF, HOB, and INK terminals. MAF has been experiencing temporary
periods of 1/4SM visibilities over the past couple of hours.
Confidence is high that this continues at temporary periods until
15Z. Fog is expected to lift by 16Z at the aforementioned
terminals. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the rest
of the period with southerly to southwesterly winds (sustained
5-10 kts). Occasional wind gusts up to 20 kts may occur this
afternoon at HOB before becoming light near sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               81  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 79  47  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   81  54  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            83  52  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           69  49  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    79  46  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    77  42  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     80  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   79  50  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     80  45  80  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

NM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for Central Lea-
     Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11